Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 39.199613 46.266795 53.984843 63.006299 73.227186 84.412464 97.542759
2025-01-19 26.546699 35.390720 45.997522 59.513154 76.122486 95.706161 120.367613
2025-01-26 21.545941 31.483306 44.254138 61.561136 84.059323 111.948744 148.721155
2025-02-02 18.899874 29.785415 44.581017 65.632581 94.212778 131.009812 181.212278
2025-02-09 16.254652 27.495281 43.584274 67.505507 101.255188 146.166228 209.261917
2025-02-16 13.993265 25.312134 42.315402 68.636094 107.080424 159.759611 235.695381
2025-02-23 11.891080 22.984118 40.452568 68.557696 110.970793 170.692622 258.837601
2025-03-02 9.898890 20.474619 37.938884 67.131758 112.610665 178.349305 277.580625
2025-03-09 8.470763 18.678283 36.297478 66.798019 115.698086 188.052222 299.458799
2025-03-16 6.721816 15.969640 32.765454 63.012159 113.079113 189.086353 308.674036
2025-03-23 6.079735 15.276013 32.619453 64.764177 119.208538 203.383914 337.856018
2025-03-30 5.158084 13.839929 30.943279 63.701006 120.638196 210.480550 356.449376
2025-04-06 4.807635 13.664483 31.784185 67.474282 130.876755 232.639094 400.305849
2025-04-13 3.712799 11.579806 28.668534 63.830679 128.427290 234.828403 413.882518
2025-04-20 3.329107 11.095419 28.690567 66.002004 136.129717 253.673393 454.287654
2025-04-27 3.161328 11.122852 29.782623 70.311267 147.867194 279.644717 507.029025
2025-05-04 2.836887 10.650640 29.713586 72.292612 155.483016 299.061999 549.926648
2025-05-11 2.502342 10.061377 29.289325 73.488374 161.686401 316.326478 589.923310
2025-05-18 2.140414 9.285610 28.307944 73.405462 165.439024 329.508777 623.625658
2025-05-25 1.762721 8.335789 26.746412 71.897274 166.309121 337.652380 649.144620
2025-06-01 1.495514 7.665128 25.768828 71.544240 169.361024 349.709389 681.635322
2025-06-08 1.136281 6.510534 23.306587 67.538207 164.789398 347.820418 690.092919
2025-06-15 1.027758 6.293206 23.366619 69.392412 172.241862 368.066733 737.548666